OPEC’s obituary has been written numerous times over the past few decades, only for the organization to rise up again. The OPEC+ alliance it formed with non-members had seemed irretrievably broken when the 2020 price war erupted, yet it too is still standing. While the UAE made veiled threats last year about quitting OPEC, analysts widely expect this latest confrontation will be resolved in the coming weeks. But it could foreshadow future conflicts that eventually test the alliance to breaking point. The UAE’s urge to deploy its new production capacity quickly may reflect concern that time is running out for fossil fuels, as the world transitions to low-carbon energy. If the switch to electric vehicles and renewable energy brings global oil demand to a plateau, OPEC+ nations may decide to break from the alliance and pump all they can.