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You might have questions about the Fox News Power Rankings: what they are, how they’re calculated and what each ranking means. We’ve prepared a guide to take you through everything you want to know.
What are the Power Rankings and how is each rating useful?
The Fox News Power Rankings provide an insight into the competitiveness and outcome of key election races. Data and information about the race are compiled into a model, which produces an estimate of the outcome of the race. These estimates are then converted into a characterization of the race (e.g. a race where the Democrat is very likely to win is labeled “Solid D,” while a highly competitive race is labeled a “Toss Up”). As the election progresses, more data and information about races become available, so expect these rankings to change throughout the year.
Ratings provide a broad characterization of the race and should never be perceived as a guarantee of an outcome.
What do the categories mean?
There are seven Fox News Race Ratings this cycle:
– Toss-Up: This race could go either way.
– Lean D or Lean R: One party has a slight edge, but it remains highly competitive.
– Likely D or Likely R: One party has a clear edge, but it is still competitive.
– Solid D or Solid R: This race is not competitive.
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What is the methodology?
Fox News uses a data-driven approach for the Power Rankings. The model is composed of several relevant data points, including historical results and polling averages, and also considers the impact of factors like fundraising and incumbency. These factors and others are weighed and discussed before making a decision. They are also subject to change regularly as new data and information about races become available.
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Where are House ratings?
Once a decade, most states engage in the redistricting process, which results in newly drawn House seats. Whether a race is competitive and what rating it is assigned is dependent on the boundaries of those districts and the candidates who choose to run in them (this is why the process is often so contentious). Thirty-two states have completed this process, but others are still months away from finalizing their new maps. Expect to see House rankings later this year.