It is “unlikely” that Russia has deployed large numbers of troops to Belarus, according to the latest intelligence briefing from the British Ministry of Defence.
The update stated: “On 14 October 2022, Belarussian president Aleksandr Lukashenko said that 70,000 Belarusian troops and up to 15,000 Russians would be involved in a new Russian-Belarussian Group of Forces.
“On 15 October 2022, the Belarussian authorities released a video claiming to show the arrival of Russian troops in Belarus. However, to date it is unlikely that Russia has actually deployed a significant number of extra troops into Belarus.
“Russia is unlikely to be able to generate combat-ready formations of the claimed size: its forces are committed in Ukraine. The Belarussian military highly likely maintains minimal capability to undertake complex operations.
“The announcement is likely an attempt to demonstrate Russian-Belarussian solidarity and to convince Ukraine to divert forces to guard the northern border.”