That should be a move to 0.5% at the quarterly review in February — which is where the rate stayed for an extended period right after the 2008 financial crisis. Under Bailey’s predecessor, Mark Carney, there was an oft-stated desire for a “buffer” to be built in to enable the central bank to have ammunition to respond to the next downturn. This may be exactly what the Bailey-led MPC is attempting to achieve. The risk, of course, is that by hiking too early, an economic downturn is exactly what will result. Above all else, the Nov. 4 quarterly review press conference needs to clarify how high rates need to be before the MPC is satisfied it has taken sufficient action.